The big story in the NFL is that Brett Favre is contemplating a return to the NFL. He’s having second thoughts about his decision to retire from the Green Bay Packers a few months ago. Everyone is weighing in with their opinion: should he or shouldn’t he? Will Favre and the Packers re-establish their relationship or is it too late?

You can’t fault Favre for having second thoughts. Many of the best moments of his life came with the Packers. Sure, the Packers had a storied past before Favre. The Packers are a franchise steeped in tradition with one of the strongest fan bases in the NFL. But Favre added something to the mix. It’s quite possible Green Bay will never have another like him, and most of their fans wouldn’t hesitate to admit it.

A Super Bowl ring, three MVP awards and countless NFL records: Favre did it all as a member of the Packers. Still he was left wanting more. As the Packers’ roster changed around him, Favre wondered if his best days in Green Bay had passed him by, but his young teammates rallied around him and the Packers made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game last season. However, things did not go according to plan. Favre threw a costly interception and the Packers lost the game at home to the underdog New York Giants.

Things ended badly so you can’t blame Favre for throwing in the towel. The way things ended left a bad taste in his mouth heading into the off-season. Plus, it appeared that he and the Packers were going in two different directions. Favre was getting older and the roster around him was young and full of potential. Backup quarterback Aaron Rodgers was waiting in the wings. It looked like the Packers would have no problem moving on with life after Favre.

Favre still loved football and the Green Bay Packers, but at his retirement press conference he broke down and cried. Even though he knew he could still play and possibly lead the Packers to another Super Bowl, Favre was calling it quits. His body was still capable of delivering on Sundays, but the grueling toll the season took on his mind and body had become too much or so he thought at the time.

As the months went by and Favre began life after football, rumor has it that he got “an itch” to come back to play again. At this point it remains speculation, but don’t fault Favre as a flip-flopper. When he retired, he felt like that was what he had to do. Everything seemed to be pointing to his retirement, even if he still loved playing the game. Now that the season is growing nearer and Favre has realized that nothing else he does is going to compare to that experience, he’s probably wondering why he ever walked away.

The interesting thing is that many experts wonder what the Packers will do if Favre does make it known that he wants to return. They question if the Packers will take Favre back. As much as he’s meant to that franchise, they’ve spent the past several months talking themselves into the post-Favre era of football. They’ve been trying to sell their fans on Aaron Rodgers as the new face of the Packers, and some fans have hopped on that bandwagon, hoping that Favre stays retired. Other fans think Favre is still the best quarterback for Green Bay regardless of his age and would welcome him back with back with open arms. But what would the team do?

It’s hard to imagine Favre playing for a team other than the Packers. Sure, he began his career with Atlanta, but he saw very little action with the Falcons and that relationship was quickly terminated with a trade to Green Bay. Once he arrived with the Packers, though, Favre took off and became a new man in the NFL. A surefire Hall of Famer, Favre is the most recognizable Packer of all-time except for maybe legendary coach Vince Lombardi, who is essentially the father of the franchise.

Imagining Favre wearing colors other than green and yellow seems almost blasphemous at this point, but it’s a possibility. If he wants to come back and the Packers don’t want him, we could very well see Favre end his playing days in a different uniform.

Ultimately the decision will have to be made together. Favre has to state his intentions at some point. With the season only a couple of months away, the clock is ticking. Then, if he does announce a desire to return, the Packers have to decide if they want to re-commit to Favre or if they’ve moved on, in which case Favre will have to look for another suitor this season.

A legendary QB and a class-act franchise, Favre and the Packers will always be linked in NFL history. But can they settle their differences and make another run at a championship? Will they add another chapter to their epic tale? Not even the ghost of Curly Lambeau knows the answer.

New York Giants wide receiver David Tyree earned Super Bowl XLII That Guy honors with his clutch performance against the New England Patriots.

His three catches—he caught four during the entire regular season—included a five yard touchdown to give New York a 10-7 lead early in the fourth quarter and a historic highlight reel 32-yard grab that kept the Giants’ game-winning drive alive.

My prediction for that guy (Donte’ Stallworth) also made three catches, which netted 34 yards for the Patriots. However, it was the little-known New York wideout who made the out-of-this-world catch and earned himself a Super Bowl ring.

Falling just short was Giants’ defensive end Justin Tuck, who recorded six tackles and two sacks. Tuck and the Giants defense held New England, the highest scoring team in NFL history, to a season-low 14 points.

Eli Manning may have won the MVP, but he couldn’t have done it without help from the likes of Tyree. Congratulations to David Tyree, the latest NFL player making Super Bowl viewers everywhere ask, “Who the hell is that guy?”

Dear Eli,

I have to begin with an apology. I’m sorry I doubted you. As the oldest of three brothers, it was just too natural for me to pick on you. When you struggled with turnover problems and first round playoff exits, I jumped on your case.

I refused to believe that you were a talented young quarterback learning the ropes. I thought you were just riding the Manning name. But it only took you four years to defeat Tom Brady and the Patriots and win a Super Bowl (not to mention the Super Bowl MVP). It took Peyton nine years to accomplish all of that.

Peyton may have all the individual numbers, but in the only category that really matters – championships – you’re now tied at one apiece and you’re five years younger than him.

I’m sorry that I called you the other Manning all these years. From now on, Eli it is. By joining Joe Montana as the only players to lead a come-from-behind game-winning touchdown drive in the final 3 minutes of a Super Bowl, you went from Eli to elite.

Is there room for improvement? Sure there is, but we’ll save that for another day. Some quarterbacks have been a part of Super Bowl winning teams (Trent Dilfer comes to mind), but you helped win the Super Bowl. There’s a difference, and I didn’t think you’d ever be a part of the latter group. But you proved me wrong, and for that I apologize.

I also want to thank you, though, Eli. As a Raiders fan, your Super Bowl victory gave me hope. SEC quarterback. Number one overall draft pick. Scrutinized for non-football related contract issues immediately after being drafted. Not an opening day starter. Lofty expectations.

That was you, Eli, but that also describes the tumultuous path of JaMarcus Russell, the Raiders’ QB of the future, who will be called upon to lead the silver and black next year. Eli, your manifestation from bumbling little brother into clutch playoff passer has given me high hopes for Russell, but it’s also a cautionary tale—don’t expect too much too soon.

So I’ll try my best to be patient with Russell. If he gets Oakland a Super Bowl in the next three years, I’d be ecstatic. And for giving me the hope to think it’s possible, the patience to wait it out and proof that anything can happen in the NFL, I thank you, Eli.

Of course, if Russell is a bust, I’m lobbying the Raiders to look into a free agent signing of Cooper Manning, who is now the official black sheep of the Manning clan.

Sincerely,
Matt

Larry Brown was that guy twelve years ago. Just ask Neil O’Donnell. Desmond Howard was that guy the following year, and it drove the New England Patriots’ kick coverage unit crazy. In 2003, Dexter Jackson was that guy, too, and Rich Gannon still has nightmares about him.

That guy seems to show up in every Super Bowl, masquerading in the jersey of a little known player on the winning team. In the most extreme cases—such as Brown, Howard and Jackson—that guy is so effective that he outshines star teammates like Troy Aikman, Brett Favre and Warren Sapp to earn the Super Bowl MVP.

More commonly, that guy simply plays superbly in the Super Bowl after being a minor role player all season. Short of winning the Super Bowl MVP trophy, that guy’s unexpected impact helps his team raise the Lombardi trophy year after year.

Rules to qualify as that guy in a Super Bowl

1. Starting quarterbacks are automatically ruled out. That means no Tom Brady and no Eli Manning
2. Pro Bowl selections are also overqualified. In addition to Brady, that rules out Randy Moss, Mike Vrabel, Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Vince Wilfork and Asante Samuel for New England. It also eliminates Osi Umenyiora, the lone Pro Bowl selection for the Giants.
3. Fantasy football studs are ineligible. Some people pay more attention to fantasy football than the real games so there’s no way Plaxico Burress, Brandon Jacobs or Wes Welker is going undetected. Obviously Brady and Moss fall into this category as well.
4. Veterans with a significant playoff history. Check off Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Troy Brown, Richard Seymour and Adalius Thomas from New England, as well as Michael Strahan, Sam Madison, R.W. McQuarters and Amani Toomer from New York.
5. No repeats. If you were already named That Guy in a Super Bowl, you can never be him again. Mike Vrabel is the only one playing in Super Bowl XLII who has been that guy before for his six-tackle, two-sack, one-touchdown-reception performance against Philadelphia in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

New York Giants top five nominees for Super Bowl XLII’s That Guy

5. Steve Smith, WR
The Giants are hoping their Steve Smith can do what the Panthers’ Steve Smith did against the Patriots (4 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD) in Super Bowl XXXVII. The Patriots will likely be focusing their coverage on Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, leaving opportunities for the rookie wideout who has made nine receptions in three postseason games.

4. Antonio Pierce, MLB
The middle linebacker typically orchestrates the defense. Pierce will need to be active around the ball for the Giants to have any chance of slowing down the NFL’s all-time highest scoring offense.

3. Kevin Boss, TE
Boss has done an admirable job filling in for the injured Jeremy Shockey on the field and does not have the same disruptive personality as Shockey either.

2. James Butler, SS
At some point in the game, the Patriots will try to go deep on Randy Moss. If Butler can lay a clean hit on Moss and rattle his cage early, the Giants secondary will have a much better chance of containing New England’s vertical passing game.

1. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB
Bradshaw has been a revelation since week 16, complimenting Brandon Jacobs and making everyone forget about Tiki Barber. The Giants’ best defense in this game may be their running offense. If Bradshaw can use his speed and power to control the ball and the clock, the Giants can limit the opportunities for Brady and company to score.

New England Patriots top five nominees for Super Bowl XLII’s That Guy

5. Nick Kaczur, RT
Yes, it is possible for a lineman to receive that guy status, and perhaps, if I was more football savvy in my younger years, I would have watched for strong line play in the Super Bowl. Kaczur will draw the assignment of Michael Strahan, the Giants’ future Hall of Famer. Containing one of the all-time sack leaders in his quest for that elusive championship ring won’t be easy though.

4. Heath Evans, FB
Evans could be the fourth fullback to earn that guy status. Howard Griffith did it with blocking, William Floyd did it with receiving and Tom Rathman did it running. Evans may contribute in any of those areas, and he’s proven to be especially valuable in short-yardage situations for New England.

3. Ty Warren, DE
Playing on a defensive line that includes Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork, Warren is the unsung man. He had just four sacks all season, but added one against Jacksonville in the playoffs. If he can get any pressure on Eli Manning, the Giants will be in trouble.

2. Kevin Faulk, RB
Faulk has been in New England since his career began in 1999. Only Troy Brown (1993) and Tedy Bruschi (1996) have longer tenure with the Patriots. And while he’s never been a featured back in the Patriots offense—only topping 100 carries twice—he’s always been a valuable weapon out of the backfield. Indeed it was Faulk—not Moss or Welker—who led the team in receptions and receiving yards in the Patriots’ AFC Championship win over San Diego.

1. Ellis Hobbs, CB/KR
It’s unlikely that Eli Manning will challenge Asante Samuel, one of the NFL’s premier cornerbacks, who figures to matchup primarily with Plaxico Burress. Whether Hobbs draws Burress or Amani Toomer, Manning is likely to look that way early and often. If Hobbs can stay on his man and record an interception, Manning could have a frustratingly bad Super Bowl experience.

The Pick for Super Bowl XLII’s That Guy
Donte’ Stallworth, WR, New England

The rationale
The New England Patriots disproved the notion all season long that you have to run the ball effectively to win games. They were throwing the ball 10-15 straight times to open games and no one could stop them. In recent weeks, as opponents have vowed not to get beaten by their high-powered passing attack, the Patriots have returned to a more conventional ground game, allowing Laurence Maroney to rack up big numbers.

I suspect that Belichick is anticipating the Giants preparing for the team that they’ve seen from week 17 onward. Thus, they’ll key on Maroney and the running game a bit too much. Yet, they also know they don’t want to get beat by Randy Moss, who set an NFL record for touchdown catches, or Wes Welker, who led the league in receptions. That makes Donte’ Stallworth a prime candidate for that guy.

Of course, if you ask him, he won’t even admit that he, Donte’, is ever on the field at all, let alone as that guy. He says it’s an alien named Nicco that takes over his body when he’s on the field. I swear I’m not making this up.
But all of that aside, Stallworth is a talented former first round pick of the Saints. He was fourth on the team in receptions behind Welker, Moss and Faulk and had two touchdowns in the playoffs last season as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles. Still, no one is talking about him heading into this game. That’s the setup for that guy to shine.

Matt’s Super Bowl XLII pick
New England 41, New York 33

Who’s the ultimate That Guy?

I was four years old when the San Francisco 49ers beat the Cincinnati Bengals 20-16 in Super Bowl XXIII, but I’ve seen the highlight of John Taylor catching the game-winning touchdown enough to feel like I was there. Taylor’s touchdown grab was his only catch of the game—he had just 14 catches all season—and it made him that guy for Joe Montana and the 49ers.

The only vague memory I actually have from game was that my 3-D glasses did absolutely nothing during the “Be Bop Bamboozled in 3-D” halftime show. Nonetheless, it was the first Super Bowl I remember watching, and I haven’t missed one since.

In honor of watching my 20th Super Bowl this Sunday, I’m ranking That Guy from all 19 games I’ve had the privilege to watch in order to crown the ultimate that guy in Super Bowl history—or, at least since I’ve been watching it.

Here’s the complete list of 19 Super Bowl That Guys.

With two weeks between the AFC/NFC Championship games and Super Bowl XLII, MattHubert.com is taking an individual look at both the Patriots and the Giants before presenting its Super Bowl prediction column. Click here to read about the Patriots.

The New York Giants will play in Super Bowl XLII. Really? Yes, really, they will.

While the New England Patriots, at 18-0, are a team on the brink of making history, the Giants, at 13-6, are a team swathed in mystery.

Even Detective Mac Taylor would struggle to unravel the layers of this New York mystery.

• How did Tom Coughlin, amid speculation that he could be fired, get this team to rebound from an 0-2 start to go 6-2?
• How did they rebound from a 14-0 hole against Buffalo in week 16 to win 38-21 and clinch a playoff berth?
• How did they manage to give New England one of the Patriots’ best scares of the season in a week 17 game that had no barring on the Giants’ playoff seeding?
• How did they win three road playoff games in a row?
• How did they beat the Cowboys after having lost to them twice in the regular season?
• How did they knock off Brett Favre and company…in sub-zero temperatures…at Lambeau Field…in overtime…on a 47-yard field goal after their kicker had already missed two shorter kicks in the fourth quarter?
• How did Eli Manning, who threw a career high 20 interceptions during the regular season, play turnover-free football in three postseason wins?

How a trip to Buffalo saved the Giants’ season

In the next several days leading up to the Super Bowl, many people will talk about the Giants’ decision to play their starters against New England. They’ll talk about how their defense intercepted the last pass of the season for both Tony Romo and Brett Favre, to secure and set up upset victories, respectively. But the turning point for this Giants team came in week 16.

The 9-5 Giants traveled to Buffalo with an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth. Knowing that the undefeated Patriots were their opponent the following week, the Giants knew this game was essentially a must-win.

Buffalo was not only playing at home; they were playing inspired. Kevin Everett, the Buffalo tight end who was nearly paralyzed earlier in the season, was in attendance for Bills’ final home game. And he was walking – something that seemed impossible to expect only a few months earlier.

At the end of the first quarter, the Bills had a 14-0 lead, and it looked as if the Giants were suffering yet another late season collapse. In 2004, they lost eight of their last nine, to finish the year 6-10. In 2005, they went 11-5, but they were one-and-done in the postseason, losing 23-0 against Carolina. Then last year the Giants lost six of their last eight, finishing the season 8-8 before bowing out in the first round of the playoffs.

With a 6-2 start in danger of falling to 9-6, the Giants rallied in the second quarter versus Buffalo. Brandon Jacobs had two rushing touchdowns in the first seven minutes of the second quarter to even the game at 14 apiece. A Lawrence Tynes field goal later made it 17-14 Giants at the half.

Buffalo scored first in the second half and regained the lead at 21-17, but the Giants dominated the fourth quarter. Ahmad Bradshaw’s 88-yard touchdown run was sandwiched by two interception returns for touchdowns by the Giants’ Kawika Mitchell and Corey Webster. Webster’s score with 5:50 remaining sealed New York’s 38-21 win.

In a game that featured rain, winds gusting from 30-50 miles per hour, and snow flurries, the Giants found a way to win. Despite four turnovers from Eli Manning, the Giants found a way to win.

Ahmad Bradshaw was one of the key discoveries of that day in Buffalo. He had carried the ball just six times all season prior to that game. But 17 carries, 151 yards and a touchdown later, Bradshaw was suddenly an important part of the Giants’ offensive game plan.

Finishing the season strong

Following that win, the Giants played the Patriots tough, even leading 28-16 more than halfway through the third quarter. Then they beat Tampa Bay 24-14. Then they outlasted Dallas 21-17. Then they edged Green Bay 23-20 in overtime. And now, it’s back to the Patriots, the last team to beat the Giants, for the Super Bowl.

Only five teams beat New York this season, and the Giants have already avenged losses to Dallas and Green Bay with postseason redemption. If they pull off the hat trick and avenge the loss to New England in the Super Bowl, the Giants’ mystery run will be remembered as one of the most confounding championship cases in NFL history.

With two weeks between the AFC/NFC Championship games and Super Bowl XLII, MattHubert.com is taking an individual look at both the Patriots and the Giants before presenting its Super Bowl prediction column. Click here to read about the Giants.

The Patriots toughest opponent on Super Bowl Sunday will be history. They can beat the Giants. They should beat the Giants. And everyone thinks they will beat the Giants (with the exception of the Giants).

With a win, the Patriots etch their names in stone by completing the greatest season the NFL has ever seen. With a win, the Patriots record improves to 19-0. Nineteen and oh!

Perfection. It’s a word that doesn’t often have a place in professional sports, especially team sports, where a collection of talented individuals does not necessarily result in success. Perfection is often done in by competition. After all, even the worst pro team is made up of players who starred in high school and college.

Perfection requires chemistry, cohesion and a bit of luck. Perfection requires attention to detail. And in a day and age where everything in sports is instantaneously digested – scores are updated in real time, recaps are posted online immediately following the game, and sportswriters, radio hosts and TV personalities discuss the biggest topics all day long – it’s hard to imagine staying focused on any one task. Perfection entails exactly that. Focus on one task. Accomplish it. Move on. And that’s what the Patriots have done.

Love them or hate them – there are few fans with feelings in between – the Patriots have faced the NFL’s best and won every single time. From SpyGate to the AFC Championship, the Patriots have won. In blowouts and close games, the Patriots won. Leading wire-to-wire and coming from behind late, the Patriots won. With a record setting offense and a stingy veteran defense, the Patriots won.

They beat the defending champion Colts on the road. They beat seven playoff teams, including San Diego twice. They swept the NFC East, which sent three of its four teams to the postseason, by a combined margin 169-97. And now they are one win away from winning the big one without losing any one.

Patriots in pursuit of perfection

With an undefeated season one win away, it’s worth asking. If the Patriots win to go 19-0, are they, in fact, perfect?

The oldest definition of the word “perfection,” comes from Aristotle. In Book Delta of the Metaphysics, Aristotle lists three qualifying statements of perfection.

1. That is perfect which is complete (contains all the requisite parts)
The Patriots may not be “complete.” They’re playing without some key players who were placed on injured reserve such as linebacker Rosevelt Colvin and running back Sammy Morris.

2. That is perfect which is so good that nothing of the kind could be better
The Patriots may not be “so good that nothing of the kind could be better.” Stephen Gostkowski missed three field goals. That leaves room for improvement. The defense didn’t record a single shutout this season. Clearly that could be bettered.

3. That is perfect which has attained its purpose.
It’s possible to argue the first two points, but if the Patriots beat the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, it’s going to be impossible to argue with point number three because winning the Super Bowl has undoubtedly been the Patriots’ primary purpose since they left the field as losers last January in Indianapolis.

Speaking of perfection, a win would give the Brady/Belichick combination a perfect 4-0 record in the Super Bowl. Only one other combination has as many rings, Terry Bradshaw and Chuck Noll with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 1970s.

The Patriots franchise is already in elite company. Only the Cowboys, who have appeared eight times, have made more Super Bowl appearances. With a win, the Patriots will trail only the 49ers, Cowboys and Steelers in total Super Bowl wins.

I thought I had it all figured out. The NFL was back to an era of dominant teams playing at a level above everyone else. Throughout the regular season, New England (16-0), Indianapolis (13-3), Dallas (13-3) and Green Bay (13-3) appeared to be head and shoulders above the rest of the league.

I was confident that none of the other eight playoff teams had a realistic shot at the conference championship. I was banking on the big name quarterbacks to lead their teams to victory, setting up colossal matchups prior to the Super Bowl. Brady vs. Manning. Favre vs. Romo. It was all set.

But it was all too good to be true.

So now it’s Brady vs. Rivers. Or maybe even Brady vs. Volek. And it’s Favre vs. Manning. Favre vs. the other Manning – Eli Manning.

With two of the NFL’s titans – Indianapolis and Dallas – eliminated at least a round earlier than expected, the Patriots and Packers will both be heavy favorites at home. It’s an easy case to make for picking New England and Green Bay to meet in the Super Bowl.

Foxboro + Brady + Moss + 17-0 seems to equal a Super Bowl berth for New England.

Lambeau + single digit temperatures + Favre + his discovery of the Fountain of Youth seems to equal a Super Bowl berth for Green Bay.

And yes, I’m as infatuated as the next guy with the too-good-to-be true storylines that would accompany a Pats-Packers Super Bowl. But there’s no need to write a column explaining why New England and Green Bay will win. They’re supposed to. However, the beauty of the NFL playoffs is that it’s one and done. And you never know when Billy Volek might strike twice in one playoff run. So let me make a case for what it will take for the Chargers and Giants to win this weekend.

Road success in the conference championship

Since the NFL switched to its current playoff format of six teams per conference in 1990, 14 teams have won the conference championship game on the road. Unfortunately for the Chargers and Giants, they aren’t playing the game in Pennsylvania, where the Steelers and Eagles have combined for nearly half of all the home championship game losses over this time period.

The fact that San Diego and New York are going on the road to play against Brady and Favre, respectively, doesn’t help either. Both quarterbacks have won conference championship games on the road themselves. But here is a list of 10 ways the Chargers or Giants (or both) can pull the upset this weekend based on the performances of successful road teams in championship games past.

1. Knock the opposing team’s Pro Bowl quarterback out of the game
(1990 – New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers and 2000 – Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders)

What happened back then: Leonard Marshall did the dubious deed for the Giants during the 1990 NFC Championship. It was the end of Joe Montana’s career in San Francisco.

Ten years later, the Ravens’ 340-pound defensive lineman Tony Siragusa effectively ended Rich Gannon’s afternoon when he landed on the Raiders quarterback in the second quarter. Gannon made a re-appearance in the second half but was unable to finish the game.

So you’re saying there’s a chance (for both): The Giants led the NFL with 53 sacks this season.

The Chargers were fifth in the league with 42. If that’s not enough, Chargers Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman’s nickname is “Lights Out.”

Why it won’t be easy: According to footballoutsiders.com, Green Bay had the best pass protection in the league with an adjusted sack rate (sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down, and distance) of just 3.1 percent. New England was not far behind with a fourth-best 4.1 percent adjusted sack rate.

2. Ride the NFL’s leading rusher
(1992 – Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers)

What happened back then: Dallas’ Emmitt Smith carried 24 times for 114 yards and two touchdowns.

So you’re saying there’s a chance (for San Diego): The Chargers do possess the NFL’s leading rusher in LaDainian Tomlinson, and he is a big reason the team rebounded from a 1-3 start.

Why it won’t be easy: Tomlinson missed the second half of the Chargers’ divisional round win against Indianapolis with a knee injury, and is questionable for the game against New England.

3. Infect the opposition with a chronic case of fumbleitis.
(1992 – Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins)

What happened back then: Miami fumbled four times, losing three of them en route to a 29-10 defeat.

So you’re saying there’s a chance (for New York): The Packers’ Ryan Grant fumbled on two of the team’s first three plays last week against Seattle.
Why it won’t be easy: Grant bounced back from his miscues to carry the ball for more than 200 yards and three touchdowns. Only Tomlinson has more rushing yards since week 10.

4. Win ugly
(1994 – San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers)

What happened back then: Take a look at the box score. The Chargers were outgained more than 2-to-1 through the air, and didn’t make up the difference on the ground or via turnovers. The Steelers also had a time of possession advantage of nearly 15 minutes.

So you’re saying there’s a chance (for both): The Chargers won last week despite surrendering more than 400 yards passing to Peyton Manning.
The Giants won last week despite being outgained and losing the time of possession battle by 13 minutes.

Why it won’t be easy: The Patriots blow out teams who play poorly. They don’t even give them a chance to hang around and win a game they have no right winning. The Packers have a penchant for blowouts too. They won six games by 19 points or more.

5. Motivate your Hall of Famer, who doesn’t want it to end here but senses the end is near.
(1997 – Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers and 2005 – Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos)

What happened back then: In ’97, John Elway was in his 15th season, and he had already lost three Super Bowls in his career. He wasn’t stellar, but he threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns, leading his team back to the big game.

In 2005, they flipped the script. Jerome Bettis scored a touchdown to make it 17-3 Steelers and Pittsburgh never looked back.

So you’re saying there’s a chance (for New York): Giants defensive end Michael Strahan, who is fifth on the NFL’s all-time sacks list, is contemplating retirement at the end of the year.

Why it won’t be easy: The Packers have a legend of their own in Brett Favre, who also would likely retire following a Super Bowl victory this season.

6. Catch a record-setting offense on an off day
(1998 – Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings)

What happened back then: The 1998 Vikings were an offensive juggernaut. They amassed 6,264 yards and scored 556 points en route to a 15-1 season. Kicker Gary Anderson even had a perfect season, going 35-for-35 on field goals and 59-for-59 on extra points.

But against Atlanta, the Vikings were outgained, and the score was 27-27 heading into overtime. In overtime, Anderson missed his first field goal of the season, a 38-yarder, and the Vikings dream season ended in nightmarish fashion with the Falcons winning 30-27.

So you’re saying there’s a chance (for San Diego): The 2007 Patriots eclipsed the prolific marks of those ’98 Vikings, gaining 6,580 yards and scoring 589 points this season. That’s an average of nearly 37 points per game. Yet in four games this year, New England failed to score 30.

Why it won’t be easy: The Patriots didn’t lose any of those games when they scored less than usual. Of course, they haven’t lost at all this season. Perfection may be just two wins away for the Pats, but don’t forget those Vikings had something else in common with the ’07 Patriots. Randy Moss led both teams in receiving yards and touchdowns.

7. Find unconventional ways to score
(1999 – Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars and 2001 – New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers)

What happened back then: In 1999, the Titans were leading 17-14 when they sacked Jaguars quarterback Mark Brunell for a safety. Derrick Mason return the ensuing free kick 80 yards for a touchdown, giving Tennessee nine points in less than 20 seconds.

In ’01, the Patriots struck first with a 55-yard punt return touchdown from Troy Brown. Then in the third quarter, Brown made his presence felt again. After a blocked field goal, Antwan Harris took the lateral from Brown and raced to the end zone to give New England a 21-3 lead.

So you’re saying there’s a chance (for both): Chargers second-year cornerback Antonio Cromartie returned a fumble and an interception for a touchdown in a game against Houston earlier this season. Cromartie also had an interception return touchdown called back because of a questionable holding penalty last week.

The Giants defense has three return touchdowns on the season, and punt returner R.W. McQuarters had a key 25-yard return last week against Dallas.

Why it won’t be easy: The Patriots and Packers are strong in all phases of the game, including special teams. Favre, however, is more likely than Brady to get burned by an errant pass for a pick-six.

8. Avenge the previous year’s postseason loss with a new coach
(2002 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles)

What happened back then: Tampa Bay was beaten soundly by the Eagles, 31-9 in the wild card round of the playoffs. It turned out to be the last game Tony Dungy coached for the Buccaneers. He was replaced by Jon Gruden, who promptly led the Bucs to a Super Bowl title, a run which included a 27-10 win over Philadelphia in the NFC Championship.

So you’re saying there’s a chance (for San Diego): The Chargers were the top seed in the AFC last year under coach Marty Schottenheimer. But they lost their opening playoff game at home against New England, and Schottenheimer was replaced by Norv Turner. After leading the Chargers to two postseason wins, San Diego is hopeful that they can make it 3-0 with an upset over the Patriots.

Why it won’t be easy: Prior to this season, Turner was just 1-1 lifetime in the playoffs. On the opposing sideline, Patriots coach Bill Belichick entered this season with a 13-3 career postseason record.

9. Play a second generation Manning.
(2003 – Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles)

What happened back then: Rookie cornerback Ricky Manning, Jr. intercepted three Donovan McNabb passes as the Panthers shutdown the Eagles 14-3.

So you’re saying there’s a chance (for New York): Archie’s son and Peyton’s little brother, Giants quarterback Eli Manning has always been “the other Manning.” But thanks to his first two playoff wins, and Peyton’s Colts’ loss to the Chargers, Eli is the man among the Manning clan this Sunday.

Why it won’t be easy: After throwing four interceptions in his first two career playoff games (both losses), Eli Manning has played turnover free football in the Giants’ two playoff wins. However, the Packers possess arguably the best cornerback tandem in the league in Al Harris and Charles Woodson.

10. Win the turnover battle

What happened back then (see graphic):

So you’re saying there’s a chance (for both): Winning the turnover battle is likely the most foolproof way of picking up the road victory win in the conference championship. Since 1990, no team has lost the turnover battle and won a conference title on the road. And only two (Atlanta in 1998 and San Diego in 1994) managed to win with a zero turnover differential.

Why it won’t be easy: Brady and Favre are two of the best clutch quarterbacks in NFL history. They’ve combined for five Super Bowl appearances, and are both extremely motivated to win it all this year. Of course, turnovers don’t always happen through the air. And sometimes, they don’t involve quarterbacks at all.

My final analysis

Having listed all the ingredients necessary for the Giants and/or Chargers to pull the big upset this weekend, I still can’t bear to pick them to win. Just because they have the recipe, it doesn’t mean they know how to cook the gourmet meal. More specifically, I cannot pick against Favre or Brady. While I do think both games will be closer than expected, expect a historic Super Bowl matchup between two surefire Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

No one receives more credit or blame for NFL success or failure than the starting quarterback and the head coach. They are the de facto leaders. They are the faces of the team. And they are inevitably linked to the team’s legacy.

Of the eight teams still playing, three feature Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, and three feature Super Bowl-winning coaches. Not surprisingly, the only two teams that feature both prized possessions – New England and Indianapolis – double as the two most popular picks to win it all this year.

Forget about the mantra that defense wins championships. Soak up the glitz and glamour surrounding the coaches and quarterbacks. They’ll point you in the right direction this postseason. Just remember two simple rules. (Of course, there are always exceptions. Yes, I’m talking to you, Trent Dilfer.)

Rule #1: It takes a star quarterback to win the big one.

Excluding Ben Roethlisberger, who at 25 years old hasn’t played long enough for a career assessment, only two of the past 10 Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks were not either surefire Hall of Famers or multiple MVP winners.

In the Super Bowl era, Doug Williams and Jim Plunkett are the only two quarterbacks to have won a Super Bowl without making the Pro Bowl at any point in their career. And even they went home with Super Bowl MVP honors.

Rule #2: Experience counts for coaches.

In the Super Bowl era, only six coaches have won the Super Bowl during their first trip to the playoffs. A quick glance at the table below shows that two men on that list are on in the Hall of Fame, Bill Walsh and Gibbs. And Seifert won in 1989 after taking over a 49ers team that had already won three Super Bowls with Walsh. The bottom line: it’s rare that a coach makes a Super Bowl run without having won in the playoffs before.

Applying the rules to the divisional round matchups
(Home team in CAPS)

Jacksonville vs. NEW ENGLAND

There’s no question the New England Patriots have more than a 16-0 record on their side. In Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the Patriots have a QB/coach combination that has teamed for three Super Bowl victories since 2002.

On the opposing sideline, the Jaguars feature a QB (David Garrard) that made his first postseason start and a coach (Jack Del Rio) that won for the first time in the postseason last week in Pittsburgh. The Jaguars won in Pittsburgh in December and January, but that doesn’t mean they can travel to Foxboro and topple the Pats.

After throwing three interceptions all season long, Garrard tossed two picks against Pittsburgh. Garrard cannot afford to turn the ball over at all against a New England team with the most potent scoring offense in NFL history. The problem for Garrard is that even if he goes mistake free, “not messing up” will not be enough to beat the Patriots. He’ll need a career day to keep pace with Brady, Moss and company.

The pick: New England 38, Jacksonville 21

San Diego vs. INDIANAPOLIS

The defending champion Colts have the same combination of Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy that proved golden last February. They also have the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year, Bob Sanders, which could spell trouble for Chargers QB Philip Rivers, who lost and performed badly last season in the divisional round.

Rivers and Norv Turner are the shakiest QB/coach duo still standing. After getting shutout in the first half last week against Tennessee, the Chargers battled back to win their first playoff game in more than a decade. But it wasn’t pretty. Tight end Antonio Gates hurt his toe and running sensation LaDainian Tomlinson amassed just 42 yards on 21 carries.

On paper, the Colts and Chargers seem to match up evenly. And their week 10 contest actually ended 23-21 in favor of the Chargers, thanks to 6 interceptions of Peyton Manning and a missed field goal by Adam Vinatieri. But when you mention Manning and Dungy vs. Rivers and Turner in a do-or-die game, there’s only one possible outcome.

The pick: Indianapolis 35, San Diego 20

Seattle vs. GREEN BAY

Over in the NFC, the Seahawks and Packers will meet in the playoffs for the first time since 2004, when Matt Hasselbeck’s infamous words, “We’ll take the ball and we’re gonna score!” backfired as he threw a pick-6 in overtime, giving the Packers a 33-27 win on wild card weekend.

Green Bay has Super Bowl-winning quarterback Brett Favre, who hasn’t tasted a playoff since that Haselbeck game. Meanwhile Seattle, who lost in the divisional round last year against Chicago, has Super Bowl-winning coach Mike Holmgren.

Holmgren was the Packers coach when Favre and the Packers won Super Bowl XXXI. Does that make their relative experience a draw? Given the choice, take the QB over the coach, especially when that QB holds nearly every passing record imaginable. Favre, a 3-time MVP, had his best year in nearly a decade. It’s hard to imagine him being one and done in the playoffs.

The pick: Green Bay 24, Seattle 23

Finally, there’s the Cowboys and the Giants. Quarterbacks Tony Romo and Eli Manning have started a combined four games in the postseason. Romo’s postseason debut ended in disaster last season when he botched the hold on a would-be game winning field goal and was then tackled just short of the first down marker and end zone, in a 21-20 loss to Seattle. He bounced back with a monster 2007 season, but all of his regular season success will be forgotten if he comes up short against the Giants.

Last week, Manning got his first playoff win in three tries. But beating the Cowboys will be a much tougher task. He’s 3-4 versus the Cowboys in his career. A win this week would silence some critics, but he’ll have to play another mistake-free game as he did last week against Tampa Bay.

The coaching matchup pits Dallas’ Wade Phillips against Tom Coughlin of the Giants. Phillips has never won a postseason game as a head coach, going a combined 0-3 with Denver and Buffalo. Including last week, Coughlin is 5-6 in his postseason career. Neither record strikes fear into the hearts of opponents but count on Phillips to channel Bill Parcells, the architect of this Cowboys team, for a big win.

The pick: Dallas 24, New York 10