• The Celtics are +11 points in the series, but with the exception of Game 1, every game in the series has been decided by 6 points or less.

• Kendrick Perkins is not typically going to fill up a stat sheet, but his presence in the paint bothers the Lakers’ offense and rebounding. If he can’t go in Game 6, that’s a boost for the Lakers.

• James Posey is the type of player every championship team needs. He does all the little things in terms of key rebounds and pesky defense, and he always seems to hit dagger shots at opportune moments.

• Chris Mihm should not see another minute of action in this series unless he’s matched up against Brian Scalabrine in garbage time.

• Kobe Bryant has yet to have a breakout game this series. This worries Lakers fans, but it has to scare Celtics fans even more.

• Doc Rivers is winning the coaching matchup with Phil Jackson through five games, simple as that.

The 2008 NBA Finals begin tomorrow night between the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics. The Lakers have lost just three games this postseason. They are not going to lose four of the next seven. Here are 14 reasons – one for each Lakers championship – why I’m picking the Lakers to win the series.

1. Killer instinct
No one has put teams away like the Lakers in this postseason. In closeout games, the Lakers are 3-0, which includes series clinchers on the road against Denver and Utah. Their ability to finish teams is even more impressive considering their relative lack of playoff experience.

2. Offensive fluidity
The triangle offense is clicking right now. The Lakers are the best passing team in the league. With Gasol and Odom in the 4 and 5 spots, they have five capable passers in their starting lineup, making them extremely difficult to defend.

3. Balanced attack
Kobe won his MVP because he was able to do this thing this season more easily than any year since Shaquille O’Neal was traded. The talent around Kobe is what makes this Lakers team so dangerous. Number 24 is the known entity. Watching different players step up each night around him is what catches other team’s off guard.

4. Education
Phil Jackson may have some unorthodox methods, but no one teaches a profound lesson quite like Phil Jackson. His basketball schooling is unmatched by any other coach in the league, and his wisdom has helped many of these young Lakers mature quickly.

5. Boston’s road woes
If the Lakers are able to steal one of the first two games on the road, the Celtics are in serious trouble of losing the series in five games. Since the Lakers have only lost two games in a row once this entire postseason and have yet to trail in a series, they’re in good shape to return to Los Angeles with a chance to close out Boston with three straight home games at Staples Center where the Lakers are undefeated this postseason.

6. Experience at point guard
He’s received some credit, but Derek Fisher is still the unsung hero of this Lakers team. He’s the glue guy on and off the court that makes this team stick together. He has three rings and will match up against second-year point guard Rajon Rondo of the Celtics. Rondo has shown flashes of brilliance in the playoffs, but he’s also shown flashes of inexperience. Those flashes will be magnified in the Finals by Fisher, who has already faced Allen Iverson, Deron Williams and Tony Parker in this playoff run.

7. A gift from Memphis
Pau Gasol’s impact on the Lakers cannot be overstated. This team went from a good playoff team with an emerging young center in Andrew Bynum to an elite title contender with 27-year-old veteran all-star center. It doesn’t hurt that Gasol’s skill set as a versatile big man who can post, face up, shoot the mid range shot with consistency, dribble and pass makes him a perfect fit in the triangle offense.

8. No glaring weaknesses
The Atlanta Hawks were a 37-win team with no playoff experience on their front line. The Cleveland Cavaliers were LeBron James and scraps that made running an offense look like nuclear physics. And the Detroit Pistons were banged up (Billups, Hamilton) and belligerent (Wallace). The Lakers have not shown any blatant weakness for the Celtics to exploit.

9. Belichick
Cheaters never win. Consider this the new curse, Boston. Enjoy that ’07 World Series trophy because Belichick and the Patriots set the stage for a new wave of Boston heartache. First, a perfect season ends in the Super Bowl – to a team from New York! (In hockey, the Bruins even pushed the hated Montreal Canadians to seven games in round one before being pummeled 5-0 in the series finale.) And now the beloved Celtics have a resurrection season, the best record in the NBA, and an NBA Finals date with the hated Lakers. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

10. Rebounding
This will be one of the most interesting stats to watch in this series, especially in the matchup between Lamar Odom and Kendrick Perkins. Both players are strong rebounders, although Odom does it with length and timing and Perkins with brute strength. Perkins cannot keep up with Odom’s quickness, but the 230-pound Odom wants no part of banging on the block against the 280-pound Perkins’ muscular frame.

11. Youthful energy off the bench
No one epitomizes what the Lakers’ bench gives this team quite like Ronny Turiaf. He dances. He screams. He laughs. He evens blocks a few shots, grabs a few rebounds, slams a few dunks and hits a foul line jumper now and again. The Celtics bench is veteran-laden with James Posey, P.J. Brown, Eddie House and Sam Cassell. Leon Powe and Glen “Big Baby” Davis can try to match Turiaf’s play, but they have no chance matching his passion, which rubs off on the rest of the bench brigade, especially Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar.

12. Allen, Ray, version 2008
This is not the spry young scorer fresh out of UConn. His jump shot may still look silky smooth, but his game is shaky. He’s a defensive liability, especially if asked to guard Kobe Bryant, and this playoff run has proven that his confidence is fragile. Without an all-star Allen, Boston’s hopes are seriously diminished.

13. No Boston Garden
Sorry TD Banknorth, no one wants to plant flowers in your garden. The fans may be just as passionate and just as loud, but the Lakers won’t feel the same level of discomfort that Magic and Kareem and company felt in the 80s at the old Boston Garden. Modern day conveniences will make their stay in Boston much more pleasant and their time on the court much less hectic. Boston has home court advantage in the series; it’s just not the same kind of advantage it once was.

14. Talent
Match up the players down the line and the Lakers simply win more individual matchups than Boston. And, yes, it is a team game. But there’s no question that both squads are playing great team basketball. The Lakers are just doing so with better individual talent. Their starting five is better and their next five off the bench are better. Lakers in five.

The Los Angeles Lakers did not trail for a single second of last night’s 93-91 victory over the San Antonio Spurs. Yet all anyone seems to want to talk about are the final 2.1 seconds.

The Spurs inbounded the ball at midcourt to Brent Barry. He gave a head fake, Derek Fisher bought it and jumped into the air, there was contact, Barry dribbled once and fired and off balance three pointer that missed wide right. Game over.

But some people are crying foul. And conspiracy theorists are salivating at the fact that Joey Crawford happens to be the referee in question on that final play. Still, others are taking a more level-headed approach, urging Spurs fans to temper their frustration with a look at the bigger picture.

For what it’s worth, none of the actual participants in the game were willing to say a foul should have been called:

Brent Barry: “That is not going to get called. But the play really didn’t go off as designed and we were forced into a difficult shot at the end that I had but really we weren’t expecting to get that … But that play was not where the game was lost. We gave up so many offensive rebounds and never ever got over the hump.”

Gregg Popovich: “If I was the official I wouldn’t have called that a foul.”

Tim Duncan: “You’re not going to get that call; they’re not going to make that call. I was hoping he (Brent) was going to go up through his arm when he did get him in the air a little bit but I think he took a dribble to the side trying to get a good look at it and he made the right play. He knows they’re not going to make that call and he’s trying to get a good look at the basket and trying to get a clean shot off.”

Derek Fisher: “As he loaded up, I lunged toward him, but before I made contact with him I dropped my arms down and we turned at the same time, so we met simultaneously. There was contact for sure, but I don’t think I ran through him. Had I run through him, I think the ref definitely would have called the foul. I felt like both of my arms were down. I didn’t run through him. I didn’t initiate any contact. I think the ref was able to see that he was turning at the same time that I got to the spot. I think that the fact that both of my arms were down and I was in a relative position of not causing him any harm, that’s why they let it go. I never thought they would call a foul.”

Pau Gasol: “I think I would have been pretty upset if they would have called a foul, especially if there was no foul to call. Luckily, I think, Derek went straight up and down and Barry went into him. It was a good no-call.”

TNT analysts Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley and Reggie Miller compounded the issue by saying the play was not a foul because Barry did not sell the foul. The insinuation was that if he reacted more flamboyantly to the contact or launched himself into Fisher while attempting the three, the call would have been made. And maybe they’re right, but if so, are fans OK with that?

That opens up an entirely separate can of worms that encompasses everything from drawing the foul (generally seen as a good thing) to flopping (generally seen as a bad thing). I think it’s safe to assume fans don’t want a situation that encourages flopping. So then, what do we make of the no-call?

No calls on plays involving contact are nothing new. Often, last-second halfcourt heaves involving some contact are not whistled as fouls. Or, try watching Shaquille O’Neal, LeBron James or Kobe Bryant for an entire game. They will endure contact nearly every time they touch the ball. It’s the only way to keep them from scoring at will. Sometimes the contact will be whistled a foul. Other times, they’ll have to play on, although the contact resembles the same brand that resulted in a foul before. It’s a delicate balance, for sure.

However, short of prohibiting any player contact, which would change the sport entirely, there is no objective way to call a game. Yes, there are rules, yes. And yes, there are detailed descriptions of what constitutes a foul. But fouls are subjective and always will be. They differ from backyard to playground from high school to college and from NBA regular season to postseason. Referees get paid for their spotting-a-foul ability, but they do not have infallibility.

Basketball is a contact sport, plain and simple. That contact is amplified at the end of the game when no one wants to surrender the winning basket, and it’s amplified more at the end of a playoff game when a play can mean the difference between moving on or the end of the season.

The problem is that fans want the game to be decided by the players (i.e. a winner-take-all shot at the buzzer), but players do not want to see their fate decided by the opposing team’s uncontested jumper. Hence, defense, which tends to involve contact of some varying degree. It’s that degree that makes for debate: fair or foul?

And there really is no foolproof solution. It’s subjective. Anyone who’s ever played in a game of pickup basketball knows that disputes over fouls are not limited to the NBA. In streetball, the players call their own fouls, and, I would argue, that is where the idea of the referees not deciding the outcome down the stretch comes from. It takes a serious foul for someone to speak up and call a foul at the end of a closely contested pick-up game. It’s an unwritten rule. You make the play or you don’t. No bail out calls.

That doesn’t make the Barry situation any easier to rule, but it puts the end of game dilemma into context. Let the players play and the referees ref.

Was there contact on the play? Yes.
Enough to justify a foul call? Maybe.
Whose call is that to make? The referee, Joey Crawford.
Did he call a foul? No.

And that’s that. A tough pill to swallow for Spurs fans, certainly, but the referee is there to make a subjective call and he ruled no foul on the play. You can justify it with talk of other calls and non-calls saying it all balances out in the end. That’s fine, but that’s also irrelevant. Each play has to stand on its own.

So unless you’re one of those players at the local Y that calls a foul every time someone breathes on you wrong, take a page from the classy Spurs players, including the player at the center of the storm, Brent Barry. Just because things don’t always go your way, it does not mean the world is against you. Live to play better another day.

No foul. No elaborate conspiracy. No more room for error for the defending champions. Lakers lead the series 3-1.

The NBA Draft Lottery takes place tonight prior to Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals featuring Detroit at Boston. The Lakers host the Spurs in Los Angeles tomorrow night in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. My picks are Celtics in seven and Lakers in six.

In anticipation of the conference finals, here are some bits of information for your next NBA conversation that connect this year’s conference finalists to the draft.

• There is an average of 3.3 players left playing from each draft dating back to 1992. Over that span, only the 1994 NBA Draft, which featured Jason Kidd and Grant Hill, is not represented among the four finalists.

• The 1998 Draft has just one representative, Boston’s Paul Pierce.

• The 1995 Draft leads the way with eight active participants in the conference finals, including four Spurs. The list: Antonio McDyess (2nd overall), Rasheed Wallace (4th), Kevin Garnett (5th), Damon Stoudamire (7th), Kurt Thomas (10th), Brent Barry (15th), Theo Ratliff (18th) and Michael Finley (21st).

• Seven undrafted players are employed by teams still playing this, including two starters for San Antonio, Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto.

• The Spurs also lead the way with three starters they originally drafted (Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.) The other teams each have just one starter that they drafted (Paul Pierce for Boston, Tayshaun Prince for Detroit and Derek Fisher for Los Angeles).

• Detroit’s starting lineup has the best average draft position of 7.8. Four of their starters were top-7 picks.

• The Lakers’ starting lineup comes in second with an average draft position of 11.2. League MVP Kobe Bryant was taken with the 13th overall selection in 1996 behind players such as Kerry Kittles, Todd Fuller and Vitaly Potapenko.

• Boston’s starting lineup has an average draft position of 13.6. Boston is the only team left without a player on its roster drafted in the top-3. The highest selected players on their roster are Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Both players were picked 5th overall.

• The Spurs’ three starters (minus the undrafted Bowen and Oberto) have what is easily the worst average draft position of 28.7 despite having former number one overall pick Tim Duncan. Why such a skewed number? Because 6th Man of the Year Manu Ginobili was drafted, believe it or not, 57th overall in 1999.

In the first six games of the series, the 90-point mark was eclipsed just once by each team. The Cavs did it in a 108-84 win in Game 3, and Boston did it in a 96-89 Game 5 victory.

It was a defense-dominated series. Yet it was the offense of two players – Boston’s Paul Pierce and Cleveland’s LeBron James – that was the story of Game 7. The two all-stars, who doubled as the other’s primary defender, delivered a classic duel. Pierce netted 41 points on 13-of-23 shooting. James put in 45 points on 14-of-29 shooting.

The two players accounted for more than 45 percent of the game’s scoring. Think about that. Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals, and two guys scored almost half of the points in a 97-92 thriller. In the end, the Celtics – riding Pierce, home court and a relentless intensity – were too much for Cleveland to overcome.

In the end, keeping it close was not enough for the Cavs. They lost two of the three games decided by five points or less in the series, including the decisive Game 7.

It was the little things that did them in. With Boston clinging to a three-point lead and less than 3 minutes to play, veteran P.J. Brown secured an offensive rebound – Boston had 10 for a total of 18 second-chance points – and scored the put back for the Celtics. The little-used Brown would hit add a jumper with 1:21 to play after Cleveland cut the lead to one. Boston made the little plays to win; Cleveland did not.

Sasha Pavlovic stepped on the line for a would-be wide open three-pointer, which netted just two points. Delonte West missed a potential tying three with just more than a minute left. LeBron James failed to step in front of Paul Pierce to box out on a jump ball situation that the Cavs should have controlled. Pierce hustled to be first to the ball and got the timeout called, swiping a precious possession away from Cleveland.

There are so many instances Cavalier fans can point to and wonder “what if?” but while they’re left wondering, the Celtics move on a face another daunting opponent, the Detroit Pistons. Detroit is playing in the Eastern Conference Finals for the sixth straight season. Boston returns for the first time since 2002 when they lost in six games to the New Jersey Nets. Only Paul Pierce remains from that team. And if he can build upon his Game 7 performance in the next round, he may play in the NBA Finals for the first time in his career and end the Celtics’ drought that’s lasted more than 20 years.

Great Game 5 between the Lakers and Jazz last night. One of the key plays of the game – and hot topics of debate – is the Pau Gasol rebound and put-back late in the game that essentially sealed the game for L.A.

Mehmet Okur went flying toward the baseline as Gasol grabbed the ball and at first glance it appeared Gasol pushed off. I’m sure everyone in Utah thought so and Henry Abbott of ESPN.com’s TrueHoop thought similarly until he watched the replay several times.

In truth, it looks like Okur flopped. There was contact but not enough to send a 263-pound man to the ground. Okur should have boxed out better. My old high school coach taught me that. But that’s another story. The point is that the flop was Okur’s next best option. He figured he wasn’t getting the rebound anyway so he flopped.

The referee sees a player falling to the ground. In theory, a player doesn’t fall on his own. Some other force knocks him down there. That is the theory upon which the flop strategy is built. Flopping takes on the appearance of a reaction to an action that didn’t exist. The flopper’s goal is to perform the flop well enough that the faked reaction “must” have been caused by some original action. And that action, while unknown to the ref, “must” have come from the player who probably knocked down the flopper.

Thankfully the referee was not baited by Okur at the end of Game 5. But the bigger question is, why is flopping allowed? It’s designed specifically to draw a foul on a player who did not commit an infraction. With only six fouls to give, one successful flop moves the innocent player 17 percent closer to an unfair disqualification. But that’s not fair. Shouldn’t the flopper be the one who is punished for his shenanigans?

Of course he should. The question is how. The referee has enough to be concerned with. We can’t expect him to judge every collision and bump and decide who’s really being knocked down and who’s falling on their own. It’s hard enough to know a block from a charge sometimes. Adding a flop foul call to the ref’s repertoire doesn’t seem feasible.

But there should be a penalty and it should start with the flagrant flops. There are some plays when (almost) everyone is in agreement on a flop. I’m pretty sure the NBA officials already review every game after it is played to go over calls. If not, they should. So why not make it someone’s job to look specifically at flop situations? If he sees something that is a flagrant flop, the flopping player gets assessed a penalty. And set up a system to hold players accountable.

First flop is a fine. The fine increases with each successive flop. After a certain number of flops (5? 10? 15?), the player earns a suspension. Losing cash and missing games would make players stand their ground more firmly. This needs to happen and the sooner the better.