It’s a busy time of year in the sports world, and you can tell it’s rubbing off on me. Three posts in one night! The hat trick comes, once again, by virtue of my thoughts being included on Bill Williamson’s AFC West blog. This time I’m weighing in on the AFC West story of the week, which I believe was the Chargers playoff win over the Colts.
For more information, visit MattHubert.com.
I didn’t write a column with last weekend’s wild card round picks. It was right after the holidays. I was in a time crunch. Blah blah blah. Anyway, I didn’t write a column, but I posted my usual playoff picks, and I went 3-1.
By not thinking (and writing) too much, I didn’t talk myself into any bad picks. The only game I missed was the Chargers-Colts battle, and that game was the closest of them all, eventually being settled in overtime in favor of San Diego thanks to career nights for backup running back Darren Sproies and punter Mike Scifres.
So, after the silent treatment was successful, I’m doing the obvious—completely abandoning that winning strategy and writing a picks column for the divisional round. I’m feeling good after winning Erie Times-News sports columnist Duane Rankin’s BCS challenge with a clean sweep, 5-0, of the big college bowl games. Now it’s time for me to go pro with the picks for this weekend.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
The first team to 10 may very well win this game. These teams play similar grind-it-out styles that depend on their defenses and running games. The primary contrast comes at quarterback. The Ravens will play rookie Joe Flacco. The Titans will start 36-year-old veteran Kerry Collins, whose first playoff start came Jan. 5, 1997. Flacco was 11 years old. Collins hasn’t exactly had a Hall of Fame career, but I think his wisdom and Flacco’s inexperience will be the difference in this one.
My pick: Tennessee 13, Baltimore 3
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
This game looks to be the biggest mismatch of the weekend. Carolina was 8-0 at home this season, and Arizona was just 3-5 on the road. Plus, the Cardinals may be without Anquan Boldin, allowing the Panthers to put extra attention on Larry Fitzgerald. Expect Kurt Warner to keep it close for a half, but then the Panthers’ will pull away to win going away.
My pick: Carolina 34, Arizona 17
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Last year, the Giants were in the Eagles’ role, heading to Dallas for a divisional round matchup on the road as an underdog. So the Giants won’t be blindsided by Donovan McNabb and company. But they also won’t be fully equipped to beat them. The absence of Plaxico Burress hurt the Giants down the stretch this season, and it will hurt against the Eagles. Their Earth, Wind & Fire running game of Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw should be effective. But with Eli Manning lacking Burress as a deep threat, the passing attack is limited—something that the Eagles’ aggressive blitz scheme should be able to exploit.
My pick: Philadelphia 27, New York 24
San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
For the second week in a row, the Chargers game looks like the toughest one to pick. My thoughts on this one, re-printed below, were also included on Bill Williamson’s AFC West blog.
Records are irrelevant in the playoffs, so it doesn’t matter that the Chargers are 9-8 and the Steelers are 12-4. Things that do matter? Defense (advantage Steelers, number one in the league). Peaking at the right time (advantage Chargers, winners of five in a row). Injuries (Call it even between Tomlinson?s groin and Roethlisberger?s head). This game has all the makings of a slugfest much like the 11-10 result from earlier this season. And in the past three seasons, the Super Bowl winner has not had a first round bye. While that bodes well for San Diego, no one has been more battle-tested this year than the Steelers. Their rigorous schedule should have them well-prepared for the grind of playoff football. Polamalu picks off Rivers late to seal the deal.
My pick: Steelers 20, Chargers 13.
Matt’s 2009 NFL Playoff Predictions Tally
LAST WEEK: 3-1
Overall: 3-1
For more information, visit MattHubert.com.
There’s a very interesting post up on Forum Blue & Gold right now about lessons in losing. Specifically, it talks about the differences in the way that Phil Jackson and Doc Rivers have handled the rough patches their teams have endured early this season.
Many fans—myself included—often get on Jackson and the Lakers for seemingly not bringing it every night and playing down to the level of their competition. Similarly, Rivers’ Celtics—since acquiring Kevin Garnett—have been routinely praised for giving maximum effort at all times, as if every game determined the NBA champion.
The Celtics’ model, and Garnett in particular, is a high school coach’s dream. The idea of giving 100 percent effort is a good thing. However, the practice of it may be problematic. The Celtics played more than 100 games last year. Their core of players is not young by NBA standards and they lost key contributors from last year’s team including James Posey and P.J. Brown. So, it’s only natural that giving the same continous all-out effort game after game would leave them even more drained this season.
Their recent losing skid, which has seen them drop six of their last eight games, is drawing a lot of attention. But it’s not a phenomenal event. Winning 27 of their first 29 was the phenomenal thing. They were playing above their talent, and now they’ve dropped to earth. Their goal of winning the NBA title remains very much a possibility.
But in order for that to happen, Rivers is going to have to find a way to refocus his team. They are not the ’96 Bulls. Seventy wins isn’t happening. They may hit 60, but that’s irrelevant. The goal is to be playing your best in May and June. Boston better hope that they didn’t already peak in November and December.
I felt the need to comment on the subject, but I don’t want to steal its thunder. It’s an excellent post, especially if you’re a Lakers fan who agonizes over the occasional loss to Sacramento. Read it. It will make you feel a lot better about the whole situation in Lakerland.
For more information, visit MattHubert.com.
Tim Tebow against Sam Bradford. Urban Meyer vs. Bob Stoops. The SEC against the Big 12. Florida vs. Oklahoma. This year’s BCS National Championship is loaded with intriguing storylines, but the most interesting may be the SEC’s domination of the BCS.
If Florida beats Oklahoma (and they are favored to do so), the Gators will win their second BCS National Championship in three years. It would also make the SEC a perfect 5-0 in the title game since the BCS originated in 1998. Tennessee won that first year. LSU won in 2003 and again last year. And Florida won in 2006.
How good has the SEC been? At 4-0, they aren’t just the best conference in the BCS era—they’re dominant. No other conference has won more than two BCS National Championships and. No other conference even has a winning record in the big game. The Pac-10 is closest at 1-1 thanks to USC.
Here’s the breakdown:
BCS National Championship Success
SEC: 4-0
Pac-10: 1-1
Big 12: 2-3
ACC: 1-2
Big East: 1-2
Big Ten: 1-2
Not that Oklahoma needs any added incentive. They represent the Big 12, and will play in a record fourth BCS National Championship. However, they are just 1-2 in the big game under Coach Stoops.
And conference success on the big stage means more than just bragging rights. It means more media attention. It means a boost in recruiting. And, if everyone plays their cards right, it breeds more success. The SEC’s Georgia Bulldogs began the season as the nation’s top team. Alabama, also of the SEC held the #1 ranking for several weeks. Florida now holds that spot and looks to finish the season on top.
Win or lose, the Gators will be among the top teams again next year along with several other SEC schools. The SEC is 4-2 in the ’08-’09 bowl season heading into the finale. The one loss that sticks out came against an opponent from the Mountain West conference. How come they never get a shot at the BCS?
But until the little guy gets a shot or a playoff system is instituted, the big bad SEC is going to remain king. Tonight, expect plenty of offense from both sides. But in the end, Tebow and the team speed of the Gators is too much for the Sooners.
Florida 42, Oklahoma 35 is the pick.
For more information, visit MattHubert.com.
Perhaps more than any announcer today, Dick Vitale is synonymous with his one sport—college basketball. But tonight, the bald, one-eyed basketball wacko who beat the ziggy and became a PTP’er will take part in an ESPN gimmick that features a switcheroo of announcing crews.
Vitale will team with play-by-play man Dan Shulman to call the NBA game between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Meanwhile the crew of Mike Tirico, Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy will call the college contest between Duke and Davidson.
Is it a ploy by ESPN to drum up ratings? Of course. Will it work? Maybe. Will I be watching? You better believe it.
I love both of these announcing booths to begin with. Vitale is a polarizing figure. Either you love his passion for the game or you’re annoyed by his over-the-top enthusiastic delivery. Personally, I love it, and can’t wait to hear his take on the NBA action. And Jackson and Van Gundy are the best analyst duo in the NBA as far as I’m concerned, so it’ll be interesting to hear their views on the college game and the pro prospects in the game, especially Davidson star Stephen Curry.
Dick Vitale’s one-game announcing stint has me thinking about other one-time switches I’d like to see in the NBA this season.
For more information, visit MattHubert.com.
2008 was a great year for sports. Michael Phelps’ record-setting 8 gold medals highlighted the most exciting Olympic Games of my lifetime, which also included a gold medal for the Redeem Team in Men’s basketball as well as excitement in gymnastics from Nastia Liukin and Shawn Johnson and on the track from Usain Bolt.
In the NFL, the New England Patriots started the season 18-0 only to lose in one of the most dramatic and surprising Super Bowl outcomes of all-time against Eli Manning and the New York Giants.
The NBA saw the resurgence of its two most storied franchises when the Boston Celtics met the Los Angeles Lakers in the Finals, won by Boston in six games.
College sports featured another upset-filled football season that saw a slew of top teams knocked off down the stretch, eventually setting up an LSU vs. Ohio State matchup in the BCS title game, which LSU won handily. And in basketball, Kansas ended the David-and-Goliath-like run of Davidson before upending Memphis thanks to a clutch shot from Mario Chalmers that will be replayed every March from now on.
Major League Baseball featured a season in which the previously-forever-futile Tampa Bay Rays removed the ‘Devil’ and beat out the Evil Empire New York Yankees and their Boston brethren to win the AL East and, eventually, the pennant before losing to the Philadelphia Phillies. For the City of Brotherly Love, it was their first title in the major four sports since 1983.
And in the NHL (yes, hockey reporting on MattHubert.com), Sid Crosby grew up as he led his Pittsburgh Penguins to the Stanley Cup Finals where they fell to the Detroit Red Wings.
Yes, it was a good year for sports—just not for my teams in sports.
Most of my teams failed, plain and simple. But even those that had good seasons ended up breaking my heart.
The Lakers exceeded preseason expectations, but their Finals performance was disastrous—blowing a 24-point lead at home in Game 4 and folding to lose Game 6—and the series—by 39 points. The fact that this happened against archrival Boston was what hurt most of all, though, and all the year’s successes were mitigated by six lackluster games leaving me feeling empty and betrayed.
Likewise, in college hoops, UCLA had a strong season, riding freshman Kevin Love to the Final Four. It was the Bruins’ third straight trip to the Final Four, and with Love filling the void that had seemingly cost them in two previous losses—a formidable presence down low—it seemed like this was the year. But Love shot just 4-11 and Memphis outscored UCLA 40-28 in the second half to pull away for a victory that the Tigers controlled pretty much the whole way.
And if the Lakers and Bruins’ season-ending losses stung, at least they had some wins to get them there. The Raiders finished out the ’08 campaign with back-to-back victories to salvage something from a lost season, but they still finished 5-11, which made them the first team in NFL history to have five seasons in a row with at least 11 losses. They also fired coach Lane Kiffin, making interim Tom Cable the Raiders’ fifth head coach in six years.
Things were no better in the college ranks where Michigan won just three games, lost five games at the Big House, and missed a bowl for the first time since 1974.
In baseball, the A’s weren’t even relevant, and though they’ve been competitive in the decade, have never made a World Series appearance during the Moneyball era.
But 2008 is over, so it’s time to focus on the future.
Here now are 10 predictions, fears and dreams for 2009—five for the sports world at large and five focusing on my teams—the Lakers, Raiders, Michigan, UCLA and the Athletics.
Predictions
Fears
Dreams
For more information, visit MattHubert.com.
Four road favorites should make for an interesting opening round of the 2009 NFL playoffs. Something tells me that at least one of the road favorites will fall, and it might be the one you least expect.
My picks:
AFC
Indianapolis over San Diego
Baltimore over Miami
NFC
Arizona over Atlanta
Philadelphia over Minnesota
For more information, visit MattHubert.com.
The Los Angeles Lakers have the best team in the West. On Christmas, they went head-to-head with Boston and ended the Celtics’ 19-game winning streak. They have a record of 25-5 yet some still think the Lakers need to make a roster upgrade. Their most valuable asset that has any likelihood of being dealt is Lamar Odom, who has a $14 million contract expiring at the end of the year.
But Odom’s unique skill set—at 6’10” he can defend multiple positions, handle the ball, post up and rebound well—makes him a valuable part of this Lakers team. He’s shifted to a sixth man role this season, and he’s had his ups and downs coming off the bench, but there is no denying his talent. There will be a number of teams vying for his services should he become a free agent at the end of the year, and the Lakers may be forced to let him walk.
With all that in mind, I still think the Lakers should keep Odom, stay put, and let this roster, bolstered by a healthy Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza, take another stab at winning the championship. Having said that, there’s no doubt that Odom’s name will continue to headline any Lakers trade rumors until after the deadline passes. So, here are what I believe to be the top-10 possible, if not entirely plausible, trade destinations for Lamar Odom. They’re ranked 1-10 with number one being in the best interest of the Lakers.
10. To the Denver Nuggets (along with Josh Powell) for Nene, Linas Kleiza and Chucky Atkins
Kleiza would improve the Lakers at the 3, but probably not enough to justify a deal involving Odom. Atkins would also fill in as backup point guard during Farmar’s injury time. Nuggets would have a potential starting lineup of Kenyon Martin, Odom, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Chauncey Billups.
9. To the Dallas Mavericks (along with Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga) for Jerry Stackhouse, Jose Juan Barea, Brandon Bass and DeSagana Diop
This is a Mavs team that hasn’t been the same since dealing for Jason Kidd. Stackhouse is rotting on the bench. Teaming Odom with Nowitski gives them an interesting wrinkle and Odom’s ballhandling ability lessens the load on Kidd as well. Barea is where the Mavs would probably flinch, but he’d give the Lakers great point guard insurance while Farmar is injured. Stackhouse gives them another shooter off the bench.
8. To the Golden State Warriors (along with Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga) for Corey Magette and Ronny Turiaf
It would be great to get Turiaf back in L.A., and Magette would be an upgrade at small forward, but the questions would be, first of all, how would he handle being the fourth option on offense. And secondly, would he make an impact on defense? Meanwhile, Odom would flourish in the Warriors’ up-tempo style.
7. To the New Jersey Nets for Vince Carter
The Nets are playing well considering how they are clearly in cap-space mode. This move would create even more flexibility for them. As for Carter’s prospects in L.A.? If this was 2001, it’d be a different story, but 2008 Carter isn’t worth as much. His defense is shaky and his shooting isn’t consistent enough to make the Lakers pull the trigger on this one.
6. To the Washington Wizards (along with Josh Powell) for Antawn Jamison and Etan Thomas
Washington’s season is already a mess, so they might as well start thinking about the future. Talent-wise, this is a pretty fair deal. Jamison is a better scorer, but Odom is a better passer, ballhandler and defender. Plus, the Wizards could use some cap flexibility after locking up Gilbert Arenas for such a big figure this past offseason. I question Jamison’s ability to stretch the defense and his ability to play defense, but he would make L.A. a more potent offensive team.
5. To the Miami Heat (along with Vladimir Radmanovich) for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks
This deal features four guys with contracts that are probably too high. On paper, Marion would be the perfect fit for the Lakers, but with an expiring contract, he might be nothing more than a few-month rental. The flipside of that is that he would likely play his best to earn a new deal from someone, even if it wasn’t the Lakers. As for Odom, he would reunite with Dwayne Wade and could tutor Heat rookie Michael Beasley.
4. To the Milwaukee Bucks (along with Sasha Vujacic) for Michael Redd, Tyronn Lue and Luc Mbah a Moute
The Bucks have to figure it out soon enough. Michael Redd is good, but your team isn’t going to thrive if he’s your first option. In L.A., Redd would be a fourth option and a perfect spot-up shooter to play with Kobe, Gasol and Bynum. Kobe would shift to the three in this configuration. For Milwaukee, Vujacic would slide into Redd’s role as a knockdown shooter, and he’s younger and cheaper. Plus, they’d have the option to re-sign Odom or let him walk and claim the cap space. Either way, this is the deal the Bucks would do as opposed to the swap listed below.
3. To the Milwaukee Bucks for Richard Jefferson
An interesting one-for-one swap here. Jefferson’s deal would put the Lakers on the books for an extra two years, but he would give them an all-star caliber small forward. The bigger problem is where Odom would fit in with the Bucks’ roster.
2. To the Chicago Bulls (along with Josh Powell) for Luol Deng and Drew Gooden
The Bulls might like Odom in their lineup or use his expiring contract to find money to sign Ben Gordon or other free agents. In Deng, the Lakers get their starting 3-man, vaulting ahead of Radmanovich, Walton and Ariza.
1. To the Detroit Pistons (along with Josh Powell) for Tayshaun Prince and Kwame Brown
Lakers fans might groan at the prospect of Kwame Brown returning, but Prince would be a major upgrade at the 3, providing the Lakers with an exceptional perimeter defender who can also shoot from distance with consistency. Is Pistons GM Joe Dumars that desperate to dump salary? It’s doubtful, but it’s definitely worth making the call.
For more information, visit MattHubert.com.
Well, it’s time to face the music. My preseason Super Bowl prediction of New England vs. Dallas is clearly not going to come true. Both teams narrowly missed the playoffs despite posting winning records, including the Patriots, who became the first team since the 1985 Broncos to miss the playoffs with an 11-5 record.
In all, I predicted just five of the 12 playoff teams correctly. I correctly picked division winners New York and Minnesota in the NFC as well as Pittsburgh and San Diego in the AFC. I also had Indianapolis in as the AFC South winner, and they qualified as a wild card.
My biggest misses? Well, there were quite a few. I had playoff-bound Baltimore slated at 2-14. Ditto for the rejuvenated Falcons, who claimed the number five seed in the NFC. I also had the Dolphins, winners of the AFC East, pegged at 3-13. On the flipside, I picked the lowly Rams to win their division at 9-7 and gave the Lions enough credit to win seven games this year, which equates to seven more than they actually won. I was close with the Raiders, though, as they fell only a game short of my 6-10 projection.
Now that all is said and done, I get a fresh start to make a mess of things with playoff picks. It starts with a wild card weekend that I believe will live up to its name. Yes, I see big things for the wild card qualifiers playing on the road against shaky division winners.
But I’ll save my predictions for later this week. For now, here’s a rundown of three key categories heading into the postseason: quarterbacks, coaches and defenses. The team with the best combination at these key spots may very well wind up celebrating February 1.
Quarterbacks
Four have Super Bowl rings (both Mannings, Roethlisberger and Warner). Three others have played in the big game (McNabb, Collins, Delhomme). And three will be making their playoff debuts (Ryan, Flacco, Jackson). Here’s my rankings of the 12 quarterbacks that will vie for Super Bowl XLIII.
Coaches
Among coaches still active this season, only two have won the Super Bowl (Dungy, Coughlin). Three others have coached a team in the big game (Fisher, Fox, Reid). And five coaches will make their playoff coaching debut (Smith, Sparano, Harbaugh, Childress, Whisenhunt).
Defenses
These defensive rankings aren’t based on stats, but this is my opinion of which defenses are the best heading into the postseason.
For more information, visit MattHubert.com.
If 2008 taught us anything, the lesson is that there is always next year. The Miami Dolphins finished 2007 at 1-15. They are the 2008 AFC East Champions. And the Baltimore Ravens (from 5-11 to 11-5) and Atlanta Falcons (from 4-12 to 11-5) earned playoff berths with rookie quarterbacks and first-year coaches.
Why not the Raiders in 2009?
After struggling through another ugly season and setting an NFL mark for futility by becoming the first team in league history to lose 11 or more games in five straight seasons, the Raiders ended the season on an upswing.
They finished with wins against Houston and Tampa Bay. The victory over Houston was the Texans’ only loss in their final six games of the year. And the win over Tampa Bay prevented the Buccaneers and coach Jon Gruden from making the playoffs.
Jamarcus Russell finally showed signs that he could make it as an NFL quarterback. And the Raiders’ offense finally showed some life, getting big plays from young players like running back Michael Bush and wide receiver Johnnie Lee Higgins.
Of course, two games doesn’t tell the whole story. The Raiders can’t overlook the fact that this was a team that also lost seven games by 19 points or more. They were thoroughly dominated in nearly half their games, and they won only five.
But the Raiders need positive news. In a season that will be remembered for the feud between coach and owner and eventual firing of Lane Kiffin, the Raiders have to build on the good things they have going for them.
They need to lock up Pro Bowl cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha to a long-term deal. They need to draft well, finding players who can contribute, starting with the number seven pick overall.
But first things first. They need to make a decision about their head coach. The good news is interim coach Tom Cable won four games after taking over at the helm this year, which is as much as they won all of last year. The problem is he still went just 4-8. Cable says he thinks the Raiders can be a playoff team next season, and Russell has gone on the record saying he wants Cable retained on a permanent basis. Will Al Davis feel the same way?
I’m split here. The idea of bringing in a veteran coach like Jim Fassel or Dennis Green seems like it might bring some stability to a position that has been in flux almost annually since the departure of Jon Gruden at the beginning of this decade. But perhaps Cable could follow in the footsteps of Tony Sparano (Dolphins), Mike Smith (Falcons) and John Harbaugh (Ravens) and enjoy success despite being a new head coach.
If Davis retains Cable, I’m OK with that. But if he fires Cable for a proven commodity, I’m OK with that, too. Either way, the key is commitment. Davis has to give this coach a chance, meaning at least three or four years to make a difference and get the Raiders back on track. No exceptions. Al, Mr. Davis, do your team, your fans, and your legacy as an NFL owner a favor. Make this decision and step back. Let the coaches coach and the players play. That shouldn’t be so hard. It wouldn’t hurt to find a general manager, either. (I heard Bill Parcells might even be available.)
Will the Raiders be a playoff team next year? Who knows. But this year proves that anything is possible. And even if the Raiders reach .500, that would still be progress. If this Raiders team plays like it did in Week 16 and 17, an 8-8 finish is definitely a realistic goal, especially in a division that was won by the 8-8 Chargers this year.
The offseason starts today in Oakland. Hopefully Jamarcus Russell, Darren McFadden and the rest of this young Raiders team makes the most of it and comes back hungry to change the culture of a franchise in 2009. It won’t be easy, but thanks to some upstarts this year, it’s clearly possible to bounce back from the NFL’s basement. The Raiders have been there long enough. Only five teams have longer playoff droughts than Oakland. If the Team of the Decades doesn’t do it in 2009, this decade will be a forgettable one for Raiders fans.
For more information, visit MattHubert.com.